Colorado State University and AccuWeather Forecasts
US Wind Season 2010

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Colorado State University.

According to the Colorado State University (CSU) Tropical Storm Research Team's Report of December 2009, the 2010 North Atlantic hurricane season is predicted to be “above average”. Their latest forecast published in April 2010 is now veering towards the higher end of the original range;

Further update from Klotzbach & Gray (Colorado State University) published April 7 2010.

We continue to foresee above-average activity for the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. We have increased our seasonal forecast from the mid-point of our initial early December prediction due to a combination of anomalous warming of Atlantic tropical sea surface temperatures and a more confident view that the current El Niño will weaken. We anticipate an above-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall......(n.b. for the complete text click on the 'Further Update' link in the headline).

Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000
climatology (in parenthesis)

Issue date
9 December 2009

Issue date
7 April 2010

Named Storms   (NS)   (9.6)
Named Storm Days   (NSD)   (49.1)
Hurricanes   (H)   (5.9)
Hurricane Days   (HD)   (24.5)
Major Hurricanes   (MH)   (2.3)
Major Hurricane Days   (MHD)   (5.0)
Accumulated Cyclone Energy   (ACE)   (96.1)

11-16
51-75
 6 - 8
24 - 39
3 - 5
6 - 12
100 - 162

15
75 
8
35
4
10
150

Net Tropical Cyclone Activity   (NTC)   (100%)

108 - 172

 160

PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS *:

1) Entire U.S. coastline - 69% (average for last century is 52%).
2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 45% (average for last century is 31%).
3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 44% (average for last century is 30%.

PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE TRACKING INTO THE CARIBBEAN (10-20°N, 60-88°W).

1) 58% (average for last century is 42%).

*  Landfall probabilities are calculated based on the midpoint of our predicted NTC range
   (e.g., NTC of 140).

ACCUWeather's forecast (March 10th 2010);

AccuWeather's hurricane forecasters believe the 2010 Atlantic season will be "much more active" than last year's relatively meek performance. A rapidly weakening El Nino event in the tropical Pacific, unusually warm surface waters in the Atlantic's key hurricane nursery, weakening trade winds and higher humidities, they said, are all pointing to increased activity.

"This year has the chance to be an extreme season," said forecaster Joe Bastardi, who led the company's hurricane forecast team. He also correctly forecasted a very snowy winter season for the mid-Atlantic states in 2009-2010, although his predictions were far short of the actual, record-breaking totals.

The new AccuWeather.com hurricane forecast, out Wednesday morning, calls for 16 to 18 tropical storms this season (the average is 11; last year saw just nine, and only three became hurricanes).

Of the 16 to 18 he expects, Bastardi believes 15 will occur in the western Atlantic. He predicts seven landfalls, five of them hurricanes, of which two or three will come ashore in the U.S. (about average).

Bastardi sees similarities in this year's setup to those in 1964, 1995 and 1998. In 1964, Hurricane Cleo struck near Miami as a Cat. 2 storm and killed 217 people. In 1995, Hurricane Opal struck the Florida panhandle and caused $3 billion in damages. And in 1998, Hurricane Bonnie (photo) came ashore near Wilmington, N.C. as a strong Cat. 2 storm and caused $1 billion in damage.

The hurricane season begins officially on June 1, and continues through November.